Rushing Elephants

By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG and DAMIEN CAVE

WASHINGTON — In abandoning longstanding restrictions on the ability of Cuban-Americans to visit and send money to family members on the island, President Obama demonstrated Monday that he was willing to open the door toward greater engagement with Cuba — but at this point, only a crack.

The announcement represents the most significant shift in United States policy toward Cuba in decades, and it is a reversal of the hard line taken by President George W. Bush. It comes as Mr. Obama is preparing to meet later this week in Trinidad and Tobago with Latin American leaders, who want him to normalize relations with Cuba and its leader, Raúl Castro.

The White House made clear on Monday that Mr. Obama, who campaigned on improving relations with Cuba, was not willing to go that far, at least not yet. Rather, the steps he took were modest, reflecting the complicated domestic politics around Cuba and the unpredictability of the Cuban response.

This volatility on both sides of the Florida Straits has bedeviled every president since Kennedy, and even Mr. Obama, who has vowed to make greater use of diplomacy with enemies as well as allies, seems to have recognized the threat.

As such, he did not lift the trade embargo with Cuba, enacted in the 1960s in an unsuccessful attempt to force a change in government after Fidel Castro came to power. Instead, he is using his executive power to repeal Mr. Bush’s tight restrictions and the looser restrictions under President Bill Clinton so that Cuban-Americans can now visit Cuba as frequently as they like and send gifts and as much money as they want, as long as the recipients are not senior government or Communist Party officials.

Mr. Obama is also allowing telecommunications companies to pursue licensing agreements in Cuba, in an attempt to open up communications there by increasing access to cellphones and satellite television. In a sign that the Cuba issue is a delicate one, the president left it to senior aides to explain his decision.

“This is a step to extend a hand to the Cuban people, in support of their desire to determine their own future,” Dan Restrepo, the senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs at the National Security Council, said in announcing the move. “It’s very important to help open up space, so the Cuban people can work on the kind of grass-roots democracy that is necessary to move Cuba to a better future.”

In a sense, the policy shift is an admission that a half-century of American policy aimed at trying to push the Castros out of power has not worked — as the Cuban American National Foundation, the most powerful lobbying group for Cuban exiles in Miami, conceded last week. Cuba policy experts characterized Mr. Obama’s moves as important humanitarian steps but said they still left open the broader question of how the United States and Cuba plan to engage in the future.

The State Department has said it was reviewing American policy toward Cuba, and Mr. Restrepo said the policy was not “frozen in time today” — a suggestion, some Cuba experts said, that the White House is laying a foundation for more far-reaching change.

“We really don’t know yet what he’s got in mind for the long term,” said Sarah Stephens of the Center for Democracy in the Americas, which advocates a further loosening of the restrictions. She said the administration may be trying to take “baby steps toward building confidence” by letting the Cuban exile community in Miami, which has traditionally opposed any softening of American policy, get used to the idea.

Mr. Obama is also facing pressure from Capitol Hill. The House and the Senate are considering legislation that would lift travel restrictions to Cuba for all Americans, not just those with family in Cuba. And some experts, like Philip Peters, a Cuba specialist and vice president at the Lexington Institute, a policy research center, argue that a president who is willing to engage Iran and Syria ought to be willing to engage Cuba.

“This is a narrow set of measures,” Mr. Peters said. “It doesn’t at all get at the issue of broader contact between American society and Cuban society, and it leaves us in kind of an odd situation where one ethnic group has an unlimited right to travel to Cuba and the rest of us are under these cold war regulations.”

Those who still support the Bush hard line denounced the decision. The Cuban government charges hefty fees on remittances, and critics like Representatives Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Florida Republicans and brothers who are Cuban-Americans, said Mr. Obama was making a “serious mistake” that would effectively put millions of dollars into the hands of the Castro regime.

Yet those old animosities are giving way to an emerging interest in dialogue that is working in Mr. Obama’s favor, both in Washington and Florida.

In Miami, the conservative old guard could still be found. On Radio, a Spanish-language station that often acts as a megaphone for Cuban-American conservatives, Ninoska Pérez Castellón, a popular host, echoed the concerns of the Diaz-Balarts. At Latin Café 2000 in Hialeah, Fla., José Soberón, 71, said he would never consider sending money or visiting the island he left years ago.

But such opinions are no longer as dominant, especially among younger Cubans like Virgiro Lopez, 31, who said that while his entire family had left Cuba, he supported Mr. Obama’s plan as a way to “help bring a spirit within the people to fight for themselves.”

Francisco J. Hernandez, the president of the Cuban American National Foundation, said the new policy would “help the Cuban people to become protagonists of the changes in Cuba.”

It would appear that the new president has finally decided to take action on our neighbors to the south. After over five decades of trying to sweep the problem under the rug, it seems that a Democratic administration will be the one to try to fix the problems created after the American-backed regime was toppled and the Castros seized control in 1962.

Despite the President’s explicit statements that he is currently unwilling to completely normalize relations with the Communist nation, it would seem that he is making moves to the contrary. As stated above, the president wishes to not only allow cash and other financial support to Cuban citizens, but also allow the telecommunications networks to extend their services as well.

What remains unclear is the actual outcome that the current administration is attempting to achieve. While it seems plausible that the primary goal is to facilitate the type of orchestrated bottom-up reform that President Obama was able to utilize to get himself into office (as official statements allude), it seems difficult to believe that the obvious implications of such a plan have escaped the President and his staff.

In a regime as opaque as that of Cuba’s, it is not hard to imagine the number of ways that a huge influx of cash could be diverted to fund the government. The point may be moot however, as it is fairly obvious that Castro’s regime has managed to succeed relatively well on its own despite nearly a half-century of embargo from the United States.

The easing of restrictions does however bring into question the issue of succession. Despite numerous attempts and near-misses on Castro’s life, he remains the dictator of the island. And while family members are likely to take over in the event of his death, the nation’s long-term path remains unclear. While it is possible that the new concessions from America will result in more conciliatory gestures from the Cubans, his death could also incite nationalist sentiment which in turn could further galvanize the Cuban constituency against their capitalist neighbors to the north.

Time will tell!

From http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/world/asia/08phils.html?_r=2&ref=world

MANILA — Hundreds of Filipinos, many of them minors suspected of petty crimes, have been killed by death squads in the Philippines in the past several years, with the local authorities tolerating these killings and the police even complicit in several of them, Human Rights Watch said Tuesday.

The group, based in New York, investigated killings last year in Philippine cities including Davao, Cebu and General Santos, and found that the death squads operated in what it called “state-protected impunity.”

In its report released Tuesday, Human Rights Watch said there had been a “steady rise” in the killings, particularly in Davao, the largest city in the southern region of Mindanao. Only two such killings were recorded in 1998, but the numbers jumped to 124 last year. In January alone, 33 people were killed. According to the Coalition Against Summary Execution, a nongovernment group in Davao City, 814 people were killed there from August 1998 to February 2009.

“The continued death squad operation reflects an official mind-set in which the ends are seen as justifying the means,” Human Rights Watch said in its report. “The motive appears to be simple expedience: courts are viewed as slow or inept. The murder of criminal suspects is seen as easier and faster than proper law enforcement.”

Most of the killings are still unsolved.

Human Rights Watch said that, in Davao City, a so-called Davao Death Squad composed of thugs and former rebels would compile lists of suspected criminals from the police or village officials. The leader of the squad provides the weapons, the address and sometimes even the photographs of targets.

“Police stations are then notified to ensure that police officers are slow to respond, enabling the death squad members to escape the crime scene, even when they commit killings near a police station,” the report said.

It said the killings had not generated outrage because most of the victims were known petty criminals, drug dealers, gang members and street children.

Human Rights Watch urged President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to denounce the killings and to order a thorough investigation. It called on Western countries and donors to pressure the Philippine government to dismantle the death squads.

Cerge Remonde, Ms. Arroyo’s spokesman, said last week that the government was cooperating with the Commission on Human Rights in its investigation.

Interesting developments in the Philippines. According to wire reports, the degree of low-intensity conflict being waged by insurgents and terrorist groups is on the rise. More importantly, this has been occurring for a number of years, with low-profile homicides and other violent crimes being perpetrated relatively unchecked by law enforcement officials.

What the author fails to mention is the ethnic divisions that run along geographical boundaries within the Philippines. Long a source of contention, the northern half of the country is predominately comprised of Spanish-speaking Roman Catholic citizens. The southern half, specifically the island of Mindanao, is a stronghold of Islamic activism; there is often very little interaction between the two areas.

As the vast majority of these extra-judicial activities have occurred in the southern regions of the country, it is a safe bet that non-state actors in the form of terrorist organizations are at least partially to blame for what has and continues to transpire. Though there is less media coverage, these activities bear a strong resemblance to what occurred in Iraq immediately following the fall of Baghdad, with politicians forming their own private militias to serve as a second option when their efforts in parliament failed to yield results.

Political corruption is not a new phenomenon; on the contrary one can see examples of security forces being used to carry out private and political agendas throughout the world. The current situation in Mexico is an excellent illustration; another would be Columbia in the late 1980s with the extensive infiltration of Escobar’s cartel into both the Columbian legislature and security services.

In both cases, the outcome proved to be devastating for the country. Mexico has found itself ensnared in a viscous drug war that has killed thousands of people along the border, and Columbia still has not recovered from its decade of violence under the thumb of Escobar despite his death nearly fifteen years ago.

What this indicates is the both the desire and extension of Islamic extremism and law throughout the rest of the world. It is no secret that Al Qaeda and other lesser known groups wish to expand their influence beyond the Middle East; in fact it is quite evident that Southeast Asia is an area that is easily exploited. Not only does Malaysia contain the largest number of Islamic citizens on the planet, but the region as a whole is relatively low profile to the majority of Western audiences.

With such a vast constituency and relatively little oversight (combined with the aforementioned complicit security services), it becomes trivial to establish power bases that will last generations.

From a strategic point of view, the best course of action would seem to be an increased presence in the region is both military and civilian capacities. The heightened threat posed by Islamic extremism is not the only problem that must be addressed; also of concern is the growing threat posed by Chinese nationalism and the North Korean nuclear program. Though the long-term implications of this hostile expansion remain to be seen, what is clear is that the United States and its allies are at a critical juncture. While the War on Terror is ongoing (though admittedly in decline), adequate cover is still in place to position Foreign Service components without appearing overtly aggressive. This will not only serve to stop further hostilities in the region, but also allow for strengthened ties between America and out allies.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE52U80520090331

By David Morgan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The missile North Korea is expected to launch as soon as this weekend appears to have a bulb-shaped nose cone consistent with a satellite payload, rather than a warhead, U.S. defense officials said on Tuesday.

A commercial satellite image of the Musudan-ri missile test site showed a Taepodong-2 missile with a bulb-shaped payload cover, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The image was posted March 29 on the Web site of the Institute for Science and International Security, or ISIS, a Washington-based group devoted to informing the public on security issues including nuclear weapons.

The bulb shape is similar to the current nose cone standard for military and commercial satellite launches, concluded officials including analysts at the U.S. Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center in Dayton, Ohio.

The same design is used by the United States, Russia, China and the European Space Agency, the analysts said.

North Korea said it will launch a satellite into space April 4-8 and issued a notice to mariners about potentially hazardous conditions in the North Pacific between 0200 and 0700 GMT each day beginning on Saturday.

One official said the bulb shape gives credence to North Korea’s contention that it intends to launch a satellite. The nose of a missile with a warhead design would be more likely to be cone-shaped.

North Korea is under mounting international pressure over the launch plan because neighboring countries and the United States view it as the test of a ballistic missile capable of reaching Hawaii. A Taepodong-2 test in 2006 failed.

The United States, Japan and South Korea are deploying missile-interceptor ships in the area.

“They probably are launching a satellite. But the issue is that the steps they’re going through to do that run parallel to them being able to have other capabilities,” senior ISIS analyst Paul Brannan said.

Brannan said he did not believe the image on the ISIS Web site showed definitively that the missile carries a bulb-shaped payload cover but suggested defense analysts could be comparing it to classified images of far greater clarity.

“The significance of the photo is that it’s the first time you could really see the missile itself. Leading up to then, you couldn’t see it,” Brannan said. “The fact you can see it so clearly on one photo versus the past ones indicated to us that they’d probably been shrouding it.”

U.S. defense officials said a successful satellite launch, expected as early as late Saturday morning in Korea, would bolster Pyongyang’s ballistic missile program.

“It would mean they can use multistage boosters to get a payload to a certain point. That’s half way to bringing a reentry vehicle back into the atmosphere,” said one official.

Proliferation experts believe the North does not have the technology to miniaturize a nuclear device for a warhead, but might be able to place a biological or dirty bomb in a conventional warhead.

Pyongyang’s only nuclear test in 2006 was seen as a partial success.

Well it looks like Pyongyang is going to step up to the plate. Despite common misconceptions to the contrary, Kim Jong Ill is not the crazy dictator that he is often portrayed to be. When his past actions are examined in the context of time which they occurred, it becomes evidently clear that rather he is simply a practitioner of political realism.

What remains to be seen however is what the true intention of the DPRK’s actions are. It is unlikely that a country which is hardly technologically advanced enough to deploy a working re-entry vehicle has any legitimate need for a satellite. Especially give the likelihood that China shares the majority of their intelligence with their neighbor to the south.

This leaves open a number of possibilities. First, it is conceivable that the Chinese are launching a satellite of some sort and in an effort to bolster the standing of the North Koreans, are allowing the launch to take place under the auspices of a DPRK military operation. Second, it is possible that the Chinese and the North Koreans experiencing a cooling of relations and that the DPRK no longer trusts the integrity of the information that the Chinese are providing.

This has serious and far-reaching implications for both parties. Primarily it would indicate the weakening of the monolithic and opaque nature of Kim Jong Ill’s regime. As far as solidarity is concerned, North Korea has typically only found sympathies within the CCP and the hard-liners in the Chinese government. Should this relationship deteriorate, the North will be in an extremely vulnerable position as they historically have not demonstrated the capability to independently develop and maintain their own technological resources.

This is the more probably of the two scenarios, as it is hardly a secret that Chinese were not happy with the partial nuclear test which occurred in late 2006. Rather they were given less than twenty minutes of advance notice from the embassy in Pyongyang. And despite the inevitable saber rattling by both parties, it is evident that Beijing desires to establish an extensive relationship with the United States, as a vast majority of their economy relies on continued trade between both countries.

A third possibility, though less likely, is that the North Koreans are finding support from either a state or non-state actor within the Middle East. Extensive collaboration between both Iran and the DPRK has transpired in the development of the Taep-Dong and Ro-Dong missiles, alternatively designated the Shahab series in Iran. Perhaps a combination of the elements stated above has culminated in the North seeking assistance from outside their typical sphere of influence.

Whatever the case, the answer will be apparent in short order, as the missile is set to launch sometime early next week.